Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has called on countries to develop an artificial intelligence transition plan now, before unemployment rises sharply.
"The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history," Gates wrote in a lengthy essay on Wednesday. "Right now, we are not preparing adequately for that transition. If the world takes the right steps, AI will be a force for good and leave everyone better off."
Gates warned that AI can replace and even exceed human cognition, adding that it could become either "the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice."
Gates said people may be underestimating AI partly because current models still make mistakes. However, researchers are creating AI models that can check their own work and improve themselves, and soon they will be substantially better than humans at many tasks, Gates added.
He warned that many jobs will "disappear forever," particularly entry-level openings.
"We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates," Gates wrote. "Waiting until people are already displaced or underemployed will be too late."
As for other major risks, Gates said AI will make it easier for criminals and other bad actors to carry out cyberattacks, fraud, disinformation campaigns, deepfakes and surveillance. AI could also affect children's development, education and human relationships, Gates said.
Notably, Gates said he would likely support a "credible" global plan to slow AI development, but does not expect one to emerge because economic and geopolitical pressures will keep the industry moving quickly.
On the benefits side, Gates said AI could help industries including science, healthcare, agriculture, education and government services. But these benefits will not reach everyone automatically. Governments and philanthropic organizations will need to ensure that lower-income communities and countries have access to the technology, he said.
A global plan, "Human Reserved" jobs and taxes on AI and robots
Gates said to help manage the AI transition, countries should create new bodies that can coordinate AI policies across different areas. A new international organization will also be needed to address risks that cross borders, Gates said. Some cooperation between the United States and China will also be necessary, he added.
Gates also proposed reserving certain jobs for humans, an area he calls "Human Reserved." He cited caregivers and medical professionals delivering serious diagnoses as examples.
Further, Gates called for taxes on AI tokens and robots. He said the current tax system encourages companies to replace workers because employers pay payroll taxes when they hire people but can often deduct the cost of robots as a business expense.
"A tax would slow the rush away from human labor a little and raise money for retraining and a stronger safety net," Gates wrote. "It would need to be targeted so it does not slow down the purely beneficial uses of AI, like making medicine and education cheaper."
Gates said he plans to raise these issues with lawmakers, world leaders and companies developing AI models.
"This unprecedented technology demands an unprecedented global response," he wrote.