OpenAI vs. Anthropic Revenue Run Rate

Annualized revenue run rate is a forward-looking pace, not booked or GAAP revenue. OpenAI has been reported to annualize a recent four-week revenue period; Anthropic annualizes recent API revenue and recurring chatbot subscriptions. The figures therefore should not be forced to reconcile exactly with quarterly booked revenue.

The reconstruction uses reported anchors from Epoch AI, company disclosures, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, the Financial Times, and The Information. OpenAI anchors include roughly $210M near the start of 2023, more than $1B in August 2023, $3.4B in June 2024, $10B in June 2025, and $21.4B at year-end 2025. Anthropic anchors include $87M at the start of 2024, $1B at year-end 2024, $2B in March 2025, $7B in October 2025, $9B at year-end, and $65B in July 2026.

OpenAI’s February–July 2023 path includes a discrete step for the launch of ChatGPT Plus and is calibrated against the reported roughly $1B 2023 revenue total. Epoch AI independently estimates $319M for the first half and $617M for the second half of 2023; the quarterly reconstruction falls within Epoch’s published confidence intervals. A single smooth interpolation from January to August materially understates the first-half revenue implied by those constraints.

Other missing month-end observations are primarily reconstructed with geometric (log-linear) interpolation, which models percentage growth rather than equal dollar additions. Reported bumps, slowdowns, and declines override that interpolation. This is why OpenAI remains visibly uneven in 2026 rather than being forced into a cosmetically smooth curve.

Confidence is stored for every company-month in the downloadable CSV. Exact means a directly reported month-end or current-period figure, though it may be rounded or described as “over” or “topped.” High means closely bracketed by strong disclosures; Medium is modeled between good anchors; Low is genuinely speculative. OpenAI June 2026 is the weakest point, with a central estimate of $32B and a plausible range of roughly $30B–$35B.

Monthly estimates are interpolated between company disclosures and reported private financial data.